{"id":6102,"date":"2026-02-03T13:40:05","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T13:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/03\/when-will-silver-stocks-catch-up-to-the-silver-price\/"},"modified":"2026-02-03T13:40:05","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T13:40:05","slug":"when-will-silver-stocks-catch-up-to-the-silver-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/03\/when-will-silver-stocks-catch-up-to-the-silver-price\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will Silver Stocks Catch Up to the Silver Price?"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

The silver price remains historically high despite a recent pullback, and many silver stocks haven’t kept pace. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Silver’s strong performance over the past year is the result of a perfect storm of factors, including an entrenched supply deficit, growing industrial demand, a weakening US dollar and deepening geopolitical and economic uncertainty. <\/p>\n

For these reasons, investors are flocking to silver for both its safe-haven status and its developing role as a critical metal in energy, artificial intelligence and defense technologies.<\/p>\n

As of early February, the silver price was trading in a range of US$70 to US$80 per ounce, while the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (ARCA:SILJ) was trading between about US$31 to US$32 per share. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

SILJ tracks small-cap and mid-cap producers, developers and explorers that derive most of their revenue from silver. The profit margins of this segment of the silver-mining industry are the most sensitive to rising silver prices, hence SILJ tends to outperform the price of physical silver during bull markets. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n

Why is there a lag between the silver price and silver stocks? <\/h3>\n

During a presentation at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC), held from January 25 to 26, Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor, looked at the performance of silver stocks relative to the price of physical silver, honing in on the silver-mining exchange-traded funds. <\/p>\n

‘So we actually have had negative leverage in silver stocks versus silver. If you look back over one year, two years, we’re essentially even. You’ve gotten no reward for taking on additional risk by being in the silver stocks.’<\/p>\n

Why are silver stocks, particularly those on the SILJ, lagging behind the performance of the physical metal? <\/p>\n

Krauth explained that valuation models for these stocks are still factoring in silver prices at US$25 to US$30, even though last quarter the price was averaging around US$70 per ounce. \u201cThey essentially almost all need to be revalued because silver is so much higher, and that hasn’t happened yet,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think they’re going to have to redo their calculations for gold and silver miners.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThat caps their earnings. Well, the good news for speculators, investors and mining stocks is that those hedges expire,\u201d said Penny, who believes that the relative outperformance of the silver stocks to the silver price will \u201ckick in soon.’ <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

When will silver stocks catch up to the silver price?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Penny is looking for those hedges to expire over the first few quarters of the year. <\/p>\n

\u201cThen that’s where these mining stocks, the profits are just going to go through the roof. I mean, even if we pull back to the mid US$60s \u2014 not expecting that \u2014 but even if that were to happen, these mining stocks are not pricing in US$60 silver. They’re still pricing in sub-US$50 silver. So a lot of upside potential here for the mining stocks,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Barton is also looking for a move sooner rather than later, especially with earning calls coming up. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think we have a catch-up trade coming. I think it’s coming soon. So if no one has taken advantage of this yet, I think you need to act like now,\u201d said Barton, who later added, \u201cAssuming the silver price could stay above, you know, US$75 an ounce or so, that should blow out expectations. And I think it’ll be a really nice trade. I really do.\u201d<\/p>\n

But that won\u2019t be the end of the party for silver. Krauth sees strong potential over the next two or three years for a \u201cdramatic run\u201d for the silver sector. And like his peers, he sees that run starting soon. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think what we’re going to see is over the next few quarters, as those projects, producers, cashflows, get revalued at higher input prices, we’re going to see the profit margins really explode and expand,\u201d he said. \u201cWe’re going to see when those numbers get reported, the market is going to start to appreciate that and start to re-rate a lot of these stocks.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Rick\u2019s rules for silver sector profits<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Rick Rule, investment guru and proprietor at Rule Investment Media, is already making plays in this latest silver bull market, leveraging the profits he\u2019s made in physical silver to better position himself for the next stage.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy reasoning being as follows: if silver goes nowhere for a year, if it stays rangebound, the best silver producers are discounting US$45 silver a year from now, if the price is at US$75 or US$80 they’ll be discounting US$75 or US$80 silver, which means the stock will be up 50, 60, 70 percent,\u201d he explained. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe speculative outlook for the silver stocks seemed to be better than the speculative outcome for silver. If silver stays flat for a year, by definition, silver won’t give me any return. But if it stays flat, the silver stocks would give me 50 or 60 percent so it was a better speculative outcome,’ Rule added. <\/p>\n

What did he do with the rest of his gains from his physical silver investment? He parked 25 percent in physical gold. \u201cThat’s how I save. I maintain liquidity in US currency, and I save in gold,\u201d said Rule. <\/p>\n

The other 25 percent went into oil and gas stocks. \u201cAs you know, my motto is that I buy hate and I sell love. Silver was loved, so I sold it. Oil and gas were hated, so I bought it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both Krauth and Barton are on board with Rick\u2019s Rules for silver investment. <\/p>\n

\u201c(Rule) has had for a long time a significant position in physical silver, and has sold a good portion of that because he is looking for value all the time and not sitting still. And he decided that those proceeds were going to go to where he saw value,\u201d said Krauth. \u201cAnd that’s part of my thesis going forward as well \u2014 that the value, or the unrealized value, in the silver space is now, especially in the miners.\u201d<\/p>\n

Barton also sees value in this strategy. \u201cI have been selling some physical silver, and I’ve been putting it into oil stocks, and I’ve been putting it into gold and silver miners because they have not played that catch-up trade, right?,\u201d he said. \u201cSpot gold and silver are relatively expensive compared to very good silver and very good gold miners. So that could be a place where you could take some profits and rotate into the next leg up.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This post appeared first on investingnews.com<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The silver price remains historically high despite a recent pullback, and many silver stocks haven’t kept pace. Silver’s strong performance over the past year is the result of a perfect storm of factors, including an entrenched supply deficit, growing industrial demand, a weakening US dollar and deepening geopolitical and economic uncertainty. For these reasons, investors…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6103,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6102"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6102\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thetradingdictionary.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}